We are hearing recording setting numbers for the new COVID-19 cases in multiple states? If there are 12,000 new cases today in your state, what does that really mean?
Does it mean that 12,000 people will die? NO! Does it mean that some people will die? YES! Then the question is, ‘How many are expected to die?’. That is not as easy to answer since COVID-19 is more lethal to the elderly with pre-existing conditions. What about some round numbers that might apply generically to COVID-19 patients? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html is my source for this article.
The CDC published five scenarios that account for virus transmissibility and disease severity. The first four scenarios assume various combinations of the lowest and highest levels of virus transmissibility and disease severity. The last scenario is the CDC’s best guess based on their best analysts.
These scenarios are up to date for the end of June 2020. The scenario numbers are not estimates or predictions for COVID-19 progression. These are informed guesses based on the historical data to date for healthcare and medical planners to use.
The overall Infection Fatality Ratio is the number of deaths from or with COVID-19 among all infected people (including the asymptomatic). The range of IFR for COVID-19 is between 0.5% and 0.8% with the best estimate of 0.65%. For my original question, out of 12,000 new cases of COVID-19 confirmed, 78 people are expected to die. However, the number of deaths could be as low as 60 or as high as 96 in that specific group of 12,000 infected people.
What percentage of people never have symptoms? The range is from 10% to 70% with the best estimate of 40%. Out of 12,000 COVID-19 infected people, 1,200 might never have symptoms, or as many as 8,400 might not have any symptoms.
Less than a month ago, the CDC and WHO reported that asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 rarely pass the infection others with the virus. The was retracted and a new classification was developed called pre-symptomatic. The presymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 will develop light to mild symptoms over time.
The infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals relative to symptomatic carriers is the percentage of asymptomatic people who will infect others with the COVID-19 virus. The low estimate is 25% and the high estimate is 100%. Out of 12,000 new cases, 400 carriers with no symptoms might infect other healthy people. The worst case is 8,400 asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 will infect healthy people. The best guess is 75% or 6,300 of the 12,000 might pass the virus on to healthy people when they exhibit no symptoms.
The last parameter evaluated by CDC is the percentage of transmission occurring prior to any symptoms being seen. Considering only those individuals who exhibit symptoms, the percentage of people they can infect is called the percentage of transmission occurring prior to any symptoms being seen. These are people who have COVID-19 and will have mild to severe symptoms. The lowest guess is 35% and the highest is 70%.
The CDC assumed that no American had any immunity to COVID-19. We have seen recently that the common cold caused by coronavirus does provide some level of immunity as seen in studies in Spain and Germany.
The following numbers are means or averages of those patients observed over the past several months. The time from being exposed to COVID-19 to showing symptoms is 6 days. People who have COVID-19 symptoms do not always seek medical attention. 35% of infected people with symptoms wait about two days, 47% wait 3-7 days, and 18% wait 8 days.
For those infected with COVID-19 requiring hospitalization, the number of days for 18-64-year-olds is 6 days and 3 days for those older than 65 years of age. Those hospitalized with COVID-19 may not be severe enough to require ICU attention. For those 18-64-year-olds the average number of days being hospitalized to requiring a transfer to ICU is 6 days. It is 3 days for those over 65 years of age.
The number of days that a hospitalized COVID-19 patient remains in the hospital without ICU attention is 3 days for the 18-49-year-olds, 4 days for the 50-64-year-olds, and 6 days for those over 65 years of age. It should be noted that some patients are in the hospital for as little as 2 days and as long as 10 days.
The percentage of COVID-19 hospitalized patients that require ICU attention 23.6% for the 18-59-year-olds, 36.2% for the 50-64-year-olds, and 35.1% for those over 65 years of age. Ventilators are required on 11.7% of those in the group of 18-49 years of age, 21.8% in the 50-64 years group, and 21.3% for those over 65 years of age. The average number of days on a ventilator is 6 days for all age groups. Some are on ventilators for as few as 2 days and as long as 12 days.
The percentages of deaths occurring in the hospital are 2.0% for the 18-49-year-old group, 9.8% for those between the ages of 50 and 64, and 28.1% for those over 65 years of age. The average number of days from COVID-19 symptoms appearing and death range from 15 days for those in the 18-64-year range with as few as 9 days and as long as 25 days. The average number of days for those over 65 years of age is 12 with as few as 7 and as many as 19 days.
It takes approximately one week for the death statistics to be updated and reported to the public.
There are lots of numbers in this article. Please click on the CDC link if you have further questions.
Live Longer & Enjoy Life! Red O’Laughlin – RedOLaughlin.com
Red, you are loaded with info
Bob, thanks for your very kind comments.