Does Anyone Have Credibility Going into the Winter Months?

Who knows what lies past those mountains?

Over two years ago, in March of 2020, the worldwide death rate average for COVID-19 shot up exponentially – from under 100/day to almost 4,000/day. This week, the daily death average is under 2,000 for the first time since March 2020. The seven-day average of new cases is the lowest worldwide since the first week of November 2020. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Today’s Headline

https://www.newsmax.com/health/health-news/covid-jha-white-house-congress/2022/05/12/id/1069664/. Immune protection is waning. The virus is adapting to be more contagious. Booster shots are necessary. Congress must approve new funding. Is any of this true?

No clinical studies have effectively assessed the immune protection afforded by naturally acquired immunity. Vaccine immunity disappears after six months, and a booster shot protection vanishes in less than four months. Yes, viruses mutate. Sometimes they get more deadly, and sometimes they do not.

We have seen the Omicron variant (several of them) infect more people faster than earlier viral variants, but the death toll is significantly less. Omicron is more contagious, and at the same time, it is less lethal. Who knows when the next mutation will occur? No one!

Who knows if the next viral mutation will be more contagious or deadly? No one! Shouting it from the rooftops (or headlines) does not make it true.

United States Status

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/. Over one million Americans have died from coronavirus in the past two years. Over eighty million people have contracted the virus. That means that almost 99% of the people survived. One hundred seventy-five thousand Americans died in the first six months of the pandemic. There were no protections afforded other than hunkering down at home, masking up, and social distancing.

When the first COVID-19 vaccines were released in December 2020, the total pandemic deaths exceeded 300,000. The first pandemic year produced over 400,000 deaths from this virus. Six months after vaccines were available, the total death toll from the pandemic virus exceeded 600,000. Since then, in June 2021, less than 400,000 Americans have died.

Did the vaccine help? I believe so. Did naturally acquired immunity help? Absolutely! However, what is still working today? Unfortunately, it is not the vaccine shots from early 2021.

Vaccine Effectiveness

https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20220511/breakthrough-covid-deaths-increasing-in-us. breakthrough is used to describe a condition happening that should not have occurred regarding the protections afforded by COVID-19 vaccines. Yesterday, an article from ABC News stated that breakthrough deaths make up a larger portion of deaths from the pandemic virus.

Eight months after COVID-19 vaccine shots were authorized for public use, just under 20% of the deaths occurred among those vaccinated. Six months later, the percentage more than doubled. Booster shots were available in September of 2021. Breakthrough deaths rose from one percent to twenty-five percent in five months for those fully vaccinated and boosted.

Over ninety percent of older Americans (over 65) have had both vaccine shots, and nearly seven out of ten have had their booster shots. Yet almost three out of four COVID-19 deaths were from this group of senior Americans. And overall, half the people eligible for booster shots have elected not to get them. Why? I cannot explain it.

Conclusion

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/covid-19-vaccine-race. Who do you believe when it comes to forecasting the future of pandemic life? One hundred thirty-seven new COVID-19 vaccines are in clinical trials. Another 194 vaccines are in pre-clinical trials. Yes, vaccine development is still ongoing. Will one or more of these vaccines be more effective than the current batch? I hope so!

Twenty-five percent of Americans (over 80 million) have been assessed as having had coronavirus. Ninety-five percent of Americans have detectable levels of COVID-19 antibodies in their bodies.
America appears to have reasonable levels of protection from naturally acquired immunity and vaccine/booster shots. So why should I expect the pandemic virus to be worse than it is today by the end of this year? I do not.

I crunch the numbers periodically to see trends, and right now, the trends are falling to nearly pre-pandemic levels. Countries with zero tolerance are seeing their protections evaporate as their populations do not have naturally acquired immunity.

I do not know the effectiveness of their national vaccines over time. Why did so many people get infected so quickly if their vaccines were effective? Will I ever see a headline stating that there is a bright light at the end of the pandemic tunnel? Probably not!

Live Longer & Enjoy Life! – Red O’Laughin – RedOLaughlin.com

 


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