Today, June 12, 2020, Worldometer.com reports that the United States has a total of 2,116,428 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 116,819 deaths. The trend for COVID-19 daily deaths appears to be decreasing.
0.64% of Americans have confirmed COVID-19 infections and 0.003% of Americans have died from or with COVID-19. The total COVID-19 deaths represent 5.5% of those with confirmed infections to date.
The last several weeks of reported daily deaths and new cases show the following:
21APR – 2693 daily deaths and 26,166 new cases (10.29%)
28APR – 2477 daily deaths and 25,498 new cases (9.71%)
05MAY – 2752 daily deaths and 24,836 new cases (11.08%)
12MAY – 1876 daily deaths and 22,962 new cases (8.17%)
19MAY – 1557 daily deaths and 20,762 new cases (7.50%)
26MAY – 775 daily deaths and 19,373 new cases (4.00%)
03JUN – 1084 daily deaths and 20,798 new cases (5.21%)
10JUN – 982 daily deaths and 20,852 new cases (4.72%)
The percent given at the end of each line represents the daily death rate compared to the new cases reported. Deaths occur days or weeks after confirmation of infection. On a running trend, the death rate appears to be decreasing from the end of April through most of May and starting to stabilize around 5% in June (to date).
The United States’ total daily death count shows 904 deaths yesterday and 785 today. A review of each of the states shows no state reporting over 100 daily deaths. The new COVID-19 cases and daily deaths of the five states with the highest new cases reported show the following:
CA – 3613 new cases and 47 deaths (1.30%
TX – 2012 new cases and 21 deaths (1.04%)
FL – 1902 new cases and 30 deaths (1.57%)
NC – 1846 new cases and 15 deaths (0.81%)
AZ – 1654 new cases and 17 deaths (1.03%)
The percentages shown at the end of each line represent the daily death rate versus the new cases confirmed. Again, there is a delay in deaths occurring from the initial determination. Only two states (NY and IL) had a daily death count over 50.
Testing has increased rapidly over the past several weeks. That is one reason why new case records are being reported in various states. The states with the highest tests given are NY, NJ, CA, MA, TX, FL, and IL. Two states (NY and CA) are reporting over 2.5 million tests in each state performed to date. The other states listed above are reporting over 1 million tests performed in each state to date.
Projections
The United States has projected testing to continue to increase. 423,658 tests were done on the first of June in the United States. The projection for the first of July is 553,579 daily tests; the first of August is 689,810 daily tests; the first of September 803,753 daily tests; and the first of October 903,998 daily tests.
The projections for new confirmed COVID-19 cases and daily deaths are:
July 1st – 124,776 new cases and 529 daily deaths (0.42%)
August 1st – 136,162 new cases and 375 daily deaths (0.28%)
September 1st – 149,789 new cases and 410 daily deaths (0.27%)
October 1st – 169,890 new cases and 1017 daily deaths (0.60%)
I reviewed the current hospital beds available for states reporting the highest new confirmed cases. I found no state lacking available beds or ICU beds through October 1st. That is not to say that a single city might not have a problem. The statistics are given on a state-wide basis.
I also noticed that the projections for September and October are showing greater variances in projected new cases, daily deaths, and hospitalizations. I do not see anything indicating this trend. Is this a projection based on the seasonal influenza data obtained over the years and applying it to COVID-19?
As herd immunity goes up, the likelihood of increased new cases and daily deaths should drop. What event would cause an increase in new COVID-19 cases and deaths in the case of more people recovered and immune from the virus? I do not know.
Reports from several countries are showing a weakening of the virus virulence. Additionally, hospitals in the United States are showing fewer ICU patients requiring ventilators. The trend of infection and death rate appears to be decreasing. Base on the data I see today, that is my continued guess – a further decrease in overall hospitalizations for the severe cases and a decrease in the overall death rate.
More social interface and more testing should indicate increased new cases. One to two percent of those new cases are severe, heuristically speaking, and require hospitalization. The other 98% will be sent home for a two-week quarantine.
Live Longer & Enjoy Life! – Red O’Laughlin – RedOLaughlin.com
